最近做下一些股票的MACD(26, 12, 9), RSI 28/07/2010

最近做下一些股票的MACD(26, 12, 9), RSI 28/07/2010

MACD RSI
Zhulian 0.0010 54.40
NTPM (0.0020) 48.80
Halex 0.0060 61.60
Jaycorp 0.0050 46.80
Jaskita 0.0010 55.90
Mitra (0.0060) 51.40
Dialog 0.0020 64.10
CIHLDG 0.0040 68.90
Marco 0.0000 49.40
THPLANT 0.0050 65.6
Cscstel 0.0120 48.2
KPJ 0.0000 61.4
Pelikan 0.0120 67.5
Arreit 0.0010 51.7
Hektar 0.0000 52.4
Maybulk 0.0090 54.2
OSK 0.0000 45.6
MPHB 0.0030 48
Mahsing 0.0020 64
Haio 0.0120 39.8
Wellcal 0.0000 53
QL 0.0020 80.6
Axiata 0.0010 71.2
Maxis 0.0010 53.5


MACD(26, 12, 9)以黄金交叉为指标， 判断是否是买（MACD 负，从最大负数开始好转)， 待买(从交叉开始到最大负数）， 卖（MACD 正，从最大正数开始转坏)， 待卖(从交叉开始到最大正数）。觉得只适合漂浮较大的MACD. 指标只是提示， 只是用来供参考， 不一定是正确的.
买: NTPM
待买: Mitra, KPJ, ARREIT, Hektar, OSK
卖: Halex, Jaycorp, Jaskita, THPlant, Cscstel, Pelikan, Maybulk, Haio
待卖: Zhulian, Dialog, CIHLDG, Macro, Mahsing, Wellcal, QL, Axiata, Maxis

*资料可能回有错误， 如有， 希望提醒我更改.谢谢
（个人判断， 买卖自负)

Personal expectation for zhulian fye 2010 based on half quarter performance - statistical analyze

http://myasimo.blogspot.com/2010/07/what-i-respect-zhulian-after-bonus.html (old)

fye2009
EPS = 23.77
NTA = 0.9279
DPS = 12sen normal div (50.5% EPS), 2sen special div (8.5% EPS)
Total 14sen (59% EPS)
Cur Price = 2.60 before ex-date (1.95 after ex-date)
ROE = 25.61%
DY = 5.38%
PE = 10.94

After Bonus 3:1 (Share increase 33.33%)
fye2009
EPS = 17.82
NTA = 0.6959
DPS = 9 sen normal div, 1.5 sen special div
Total 10.5 sen
Cur Price = 1.95
ROE = 25.61%
DY = 5.38%
PE = 10.94

fye 2010 Quarter 1
EPS = 7.23
NTA = 0.9502
DPS = 3 sen

fye 2010 Half Quarter
EPS = 12.45 (After bonus: 9.3375 sen)
NTA = 0.9724 (After bonus: RM 0.7218)
DPS = 6 sen (Quarter 2 for 3 sen dividend include bonus issue, After bonus: 5.25 sen)

* Personal prediction, this is my own references, non-offcial data
Ext. fye 2010
Ext.EPS = 20.0 sen
Ext.DPS = 11.75 sen
Ext.NTA = 0.7635
Ext.ROE = 26.2%
Ext.PE = 10 - 12
Target Price = 2.000 - 2.400
Ext.DY = 5.8% - 4.9%

*EPS Q1 * EPS Q2 EPS Q3 EPS Q4 Target ToGo
5.42 3.91 0.00 0.00 10.67

*EPS Q3/2009 *EPS Q4/2009
5.17 5.36

*DPS Q1 DPS Q2 DPS Q3 DPS Q4 Target ToGo
2.25 3.00 0.00 0.00 6.50

*DPS Q3/2009 *DPS Q4/2009
2.25 3.75
*EPS =>figure recalculate with bonus issue
*DPS =>figure recalculate with bonus issue

What i respect zhulian after bonus share issue

fye2009
EPS = 23.77
NTA = 0.9279
DPS = 12sen normal div (50.5%EPS), 2sen special div (8.5%EPS)
Total 14sen (59% EPS)
Cur Price = 2.75
ROE = 25.61%
DY = 5.09%
PE = 11.57

After Bonus 3:1 (Share increase 33.33%)
fye2009
EPS = 17.82
NTA = 0.6959
DPS = 9 sen normal div, 1.5 sen special div
Total 10.5 sen
Cur Price = 2.060
ROE = 25.61%
DY = 5.09%
PE = 11.57

fye 2010 Quarter 1
EPS = 7.23 (After bonus: 5.42)
NTA = 0.9502 (After bonus: 0.7126)
DPS = 3 sen (After bonus: 2.25)


* Personal prediction, this is my own references, non-offcial data
Ext. fye 2010
Ext.EPS = 20 sen
Ext.DPS = 12 sen
Ext.NTA = 0.8126
Ext.ROE = 24.61%

EPS Q1 EPS Q2 EPS Q3 EPS Q4 Target ToGo
5.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.58

DPS Q1 DPS Q2 DPS Q3 DPS Q4 Target ToGo
2.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.75

Bonus ex-date will be 19 July 2010

我的watch list 2010 (Update: 05/04/2010)

投资
Zhulian, Cscstel, NTPM, Maybulk, Axiata, THPlant, KPJ, QL, Dialog, Halex, MPHB, Mahsing, Jaycorp, mitra

投机
Jaskita, Karyon, Marco, CNI

source: http://www.investalks.com/home/space.php?uid=7&do=blog&id=3682

Zhulian 10/2009 Quarter 3

Q1/2009	Q2/2009	Q3/2009	Q4/2009 *(FE)
71,085	73,554	83,426	74,261
22,326	19,741	29,486	22,980
16,844	16,690	23,822	18,042
16,844	16,690	23,801	18,042
4.88	4.84	6.9	5.23
3	3	3	3
0.829	0.8473	0.8863	0.9086

EPS 2009 *(FE) = 21.85
PER 7.5 - 8.5
TP = (21.85*7.5 - 21.85*8.5)
= (1.640 -1.860)

ROE (*FE) = EPS /NAV = 21.85/ 90.86 * 100% = 24.07%

*(FE) - Self extimate, is not the real data, please take note.

Haio vs Zhulian 看看股价与回酬: (到目前09 Oct 2009)

看看股价与回酬: (到目前09 Oct 2009)

Haio: RM 6.44 (09 Oct-2009)
Zhulian: RM 1.81 (09 Oct-2009)

02-Apr-2009到09 Oct-2009, 股价起了
Haio: (6.44 / 3.52 - 1) x 100 =+ 83.0%
Zhulian: (1.81 / 0.99 - 1) x 100 = + 82.8%
可以说两个涨幅相当.

如果02-Apr-2009以RM3500买入1000 shares Haio 或者 3500 shares Zhulian
目前DPS:
Haio从Q2/2009到现在Q1/2010,有div 10 sen + 将发div 32 sen = 42 sen
Zhulian从Q3/2008到现在Q2/2009,有div 12sen

Haio回酬 = 1000 x 42 sen = RM 420

Zhulian回酬 = 3500 x 12 sen = RM 420


目前EPS:
Haio从Q2/2009到现在Q1/2010, EPS = 67.67 sen (预计的)
Zhulian从Q3/2008到现在Q2/2009,EPS = 22.25 sen (预计的)

Haio PE = 644 / 67.67 = 9.52
Zhulian PE = 181 / 22.25 = 8.14

Zhulian 10/2009 Quarter

Self Estimate.... (Only for my own reference)
Q1/2009 Q2/2009 Q3/2009 *(FE) Q4/2009 *(FE)
Revenue 71,085 73,554 74,511 74,261
Profit/(loss) before tax 22,326 19,741 23,360 22,980
Profit/(loss) for the period 16,844 16,690 18,352 18,042
Profit/(loss) attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent 16,844 16,690 18,352 18,042
Basic earnings/(loss) per share (sen) 4.88 4.84 5.320625 5.230859375
Proposed/Declared dividend per share (sen) 3 3 3 3
Net assets per share attributable to ordinary equity holders of the parent (RM) 0.829 0.8473 0.8695 0.8911


2006 2007 2008 2009 *(FE)
EPS 5.14 18.52 21.66 20.27
DPS 0 15.5 11 12
NAV 0.7274 0.7237 0.8101 0.8911

Based on 10% grow of NAV fye 2008 and DPS payout 12 sen

EPS 2008 = 21.66
EPS 2009 *(FE) = 20.27

Let said the target PE is 8
Current price is 1.67, mean current PE=167/21.66 = 7.71
while TP = 8 * 21.66 = 1.73
PE=8 based on DPS 2009 *(FE)=12 is satify

Assume that, Zhulian can hit EPS 2009 *(FE)= 20.27, PE = 10
means TP = 2.027

*(FE) - Self extimate, is not the real data, please take note.